Today we’re releasing a one-hour forecast video that offers a detailed analysis of the 10 stages of coronavirus, covering the remainder of 2020 and the start of 2021. The geographic scope of these forecasts is North America and Western Europe. It does not encompass Africa, Asia, Mexico and South America, all of which deserve a separate analysis. Australia and New Zealand are not included in this scope either, as they are on different tracks.
In our assessment, the 10 Stages of Coronavirus are:
Note that the further we go into the future, the higher the uncertainty of the projections because it all depends largely on how governments and populations respond during the “Decline” and “Complacency” stages. The future does not, for example, necessarily end in “chaos” or “collapse” if we do a good job handling the reopening phases with extreme caution and discipline.
However, because the transmissivity and mortality rates of the coronavirus are so high — and are being dangerously dismissed by much of the conservative media and independent media — there is a substantial risk that the conquering of the first wave of this virus will lead to overconfidence and complacency. Germany, for example, is already facing the prospect of a second wave of lockdowns, following its attempt to reopen its economy. The number of new infections has surged as a result.
Even though the coronavirus is clearly 56 to 100 times more deadly than the flu when honestly analyzed by any science-minded person who can do math and not make the mistake of conflating the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) with the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), much of the scientifically-illiterate media continues to falsely claim the coronavirus is no more dangerous than the regular flu. That is dangerous disinformation that, if believed by the public, will lead to a surge of new infections and eventual lockdowns, which of course cause tremendous economic damage as a result. (In truth, the world’s excess mortality statistics prove that covid-19 is causing a 50% surge in total mortality from any cause, all over the world, regardless of what’s on the death certificates.)
The Common Core education system that produces mathematically illiterate students who grow up to become mathematically illiterate adults has finally collided with a global pandemic that can only be defeated when people are able to do math as a way to accurately assess the risks (and solutions). The fact that most of the so-called “journalists” in America today have demonstrated they are incapable of reading and understanding science reporting on epidemiology and statistics does not look good for the future of this society. While our society has telescopes that can be used to detect approaching asteroids, America lacks the math and science aptitude to detect approaching pandemics.
Watch the full analysis here, in the form of a podcast along with accompanying slides:
Here’s a graphic representation of the 10 stages, five at a time:
From May – June, things will look fine to those who don’t understand exponential math (which turns out to be most people), and there will be renewed but unearned optimism across society, including in the financial markets. Without proper precautions, however, July will begin to see new cases creeping up, and the months of August – September could be a repeat of what we’ve already seen with February – March, if we’re not careful.
Should a new round of lockdowns be initiated at any level — city, county, state or nation — the result will be despair for the local population, now facing the prospect of another psychological and economic assault on their freedoms and livelihoods. This is why we expect October will present the highest risk of a major stock market crash if infections and deaths are once again on the upswing in August – September.
America will be fractured in November due to election outcomes
Almost regardless of what happens with the markets, the outcome of the November elections will be disputed by half the country. If Trump loses, conservatives will see the elections as being stolen by fraudulent mail-in voting, often called a “fraud-by-mail” scheme. If Trump wins, the Left will find a whole new reason to claim it was stolen, perhaps claiming that the votes of Democrats were suppressed by the coronavirus, possibly going as far as claiming Trump conspired with China to unleash the virus, knowing it would attack Democrat cities disproportionately (yes, it’s insane, but no more insane than the Russia collusion hoax pushed by the Democrats for the last three years).
Either way, it seems likely that November – December will see “chaos” — full details are described in the video above — followed by “collapse” in 2021, which means a collapse of public faith in the institutions that hold society together: Government, the Federal Reserve, financial markets, news media, science and medicine, common culture, safety and national defense, etc. This is a Fourth Turning moment for America, and it seems increasingly likely that whoever is President of the United States in January of 2021 may be the last president of the USA as currently structured.
Based on current conditions and informed projections, we currently give President Trump 1 in 5 odds of winning the election in November. That projection is, of course, subject to change, but given that most Trump supporters are likely to devolve into “complacency” that actually spreads the virus and leads to a second wave of infections and uncertainty, it seems likely that Trump’s own supporters will cost him the election because they refused to take the coronavirus seriously (and, for the most part, foolishly decided the whole thing was a hoax).
If Trump wins in November, it will only be because the Federal Reserve was able to artificially re-inflate the stock market bubble for a sufficient amount of time to fool the financially illiterate masses into believing the economy is “good” because a few favored stocks have been propped up by fiat currency printing (i.e. government counterfeiting of money). Even that illusion cannot be sustained for long, especially as small businesses are being crushed and real unemployment is headed into the 40% range across America.
The government’s decision to pay unemployed people effectively $15 / hour to sit at home will cripple any chances of a real economic recovery, further condemning the economic outlook to actual doom and gloom (not just imagined or theoretical).
We expect Trump to find a way to keep paying people to not work through the November elections, which is essentially national bribery of the voters with illicit bailout money that’s being counterfeited by the government. This will prove disastrous for any real economic recovery, as small businesses will be unable to find anyone who wants to work. In effect, Trump has become the cheerleader for a Universal Basic Income, long the goal of socialists and communists.
By any honest assessment, the game of the Trump administration has now shifted from actual economic activity to artificial economic illusions, and as long as Big Business receives its bailout money long enough to keep the stock market propped up, it seems that Trump’s mission to get re-elected at any cost to society will have been achieved.
If Trump really wanted to change course, he would end the money printing, end the bailouts and let over-leveraged businesses fail so that economic resources can be reallocated to those businesses that have a realistic chance at achieving a rapid recovery in real terms, not just in artificially manipulated stock market numbers and fake currency bailout operations that will only lead to economic ruin. The most basic function of free market capitalism is that you have to let businesses fail, and you have to let investors experience losses. Yet under Trump, both of those have now been eviscerated, which is the financial equivalent of pouring water into the gas tank of a combustion engine. The engine ceases to function.
The global enemies of America see this as a prime opportunity to strike a fatal blow to America’s dollar dominance
Even if Trump wins, the U.S. government is likely finished, as the mass printing of trillions of dollars in new bailout money will lead to a loss of global confidence in the dollar as the global reserve currency, creating a decisive opportunity for anti-America forces (China, Russia and the IMF, in particular) to launch a gold-back SDR system or global crypto hybrid system (perhaps backed by gold) that bypasses the dollar and renders the dollar obsolete. This would immediately result in a severing of the U.S. Treasury’s ability to beg the Fed for new funny money to fund the bailout madness (and debt burden), very rapidly resulting in hyperinflation and what I call the “Venezuelization of America.”
The release of the Wuhan coronavirus by America’s enemies was, indeed, a stroke of evil, malicious genius because it will effectively reveal all of America’s economic weaknesses and cultural shortcomings, including a younger generation of workers who for the most part refuse to work, along with widespread mathematical and science illiteracy stemming from a failed public education system that teaches victimization rather than real-world skills and critical thinking. The narrow path of Trump successfully navigating this pandemic with his own presidency and the USA fully intact is rapidly collapsing, and based on actions taken by the president so far, it seems that the Trump administration has already been taken over by Big Pharma and Big Tech, both of which are enemies of America and enemies of human knowledge and health.
Thus, the hope that Trump might find a way to defeat the enemies of humanity, drain the swamp and hold the worst anti-human criminals responsible for their malicious actions to destroy America (i.e. Obama, Comey, Clinton, etc.) has all but vanished. In its place, we now find ourselves living in a near-fascist economy where the Trump administration selects all the winners and losers in the marketplace, where the stock market is a laughable parade of government manipulation, where workers are paid not to work, and where free speech has been sacrificed by Trump to keep propping up the markets with the absurd valuations of the very tech giants who are now banning videos of doctors who disagree with the W.H.O. on the appropriate response to the coronavirus.
We are already living under multiple forms of fascism and tyranny
We are not merely falling toward fascism in America, we are in it. We are now living under medical fascism, speech fascism via the evil tech giants, economic fascism with the disastrous bailout madness, and media fascism as dangerous vaccine mandates now loom over the horizon.
None of this will end well, and none of it looks to have any chance of being reversed this year, which means America will continue its decline into multi-layered fascism and medical tyranny under the thumb of Big Pharma and Big Tech, with a compliant White House that seems incapable of resisting the demands of either one.
There appears to be no mechanism by which voting for any candidate can reverse this course. The system has failed us, no matter who is elected to run it, and America now approaches a Fourth Turning moment of real grassroots revolution.
My final prediction is that before this is all over, we will see Antifa and pro-Trump people marching side by side in mass public protests against the corrupt, criminal elite who are stealing everything and looting the nation to save the top 0.1% while 99.9% of the people suffer the unbearable consequences of government corruption, manipulations and horribly bad decisions about nearly everything.
We will offer more analysis in the months ahead, including adaptations of this current analysis as more data emerge. All projections are subject to change based on how the people choose to respond to real-world developments.