So China is building these artificial islands in the Pacific and claim now full ownership of everything in the area. Well that doesn’t sit very well with the surrounding countries including the US.
China has now vowed to repeal any intruders with force even if it’s an US Warship.
We always talk about how a simple event will ignite world war 3 and I believe that this is one of these situations. Who cares about a small group of islands but the tension between China and the surrounding countries could lead to a fatal decision. If they attack a US warship this might be the trigger.
With Russia fully back on the international table and confident in it’s ability, the middle eastern in full warfare, China reaching a level to battle US forces, this might be it.
This is like history repeats itself. In WW2 the main theater was in Europe and it was not until end of 1941 when the Pacific theater was in full effect. Today we have the Middle Eastern Theater in full warfare and the island event could be the ignition of a new Pacific theater.
Now let’s imagine that this really would happen – China fires on an US warship because China thinks that they violated their sea- and airspace. Maybe killing multiple sailors in the process. The US warships return fire, destroying various military assets on these islands.
What would happen next?
Scenario 1:
China might declare this incident as an provoked attack and starts shifting it’s policy towards extreme hostility towards any “invading” country. It would close down its airports to foreign hostile carriers, maybe even arrest citizens of hostile countries. But they won’t declare war towards anyone. They will run this under the presumption of protecting “their” borders. It’s impossible for China to start a war – they would need to be extremely confident in their ability to continue economy growth without Europe, US, Australia and most other regions and countries. They might start trying to “grab” some of the surrounding countries in the process but most countries will only urge China to stop their activities with words and not actual trying to stop them.
The United States will not take this matter lightly either. There will be repercussion in terms of new laws against Chinese citizens/immigration’s and investors. Maybe even temporarily stop all Chinese investments into the United States, freeze Chinese bank accounts and you know the Chinese Ambassadors better books himself a room close to Congress because he/she will spent a lot of time there. American consumers probably will look closer on a products origin and maybe even avoid buying Chinese products. A whole new wave of propaganda and anti-Chinese campaigns will ignite and it will hurt China in the short term but China won’t act on it – they will try to play it down.
Basically a couple people lost their lives and everyone moves on, but the world will be changed. Trust will be lost but most effects will be temporary. Russia btw just is standing by. They are not going with China into this “battle”.
Scenario 2:
As in scenario 1, China will lock-down their airports, ports, etc. Russia is flying into Turkey more provocative and also starts building up more troops along the NATO borders. The NATO has to act on fears of an eventual invasion. They also built up troops on their side. The United States is activating it’s warfare plans and are placing their assets in strategic locations around the world.
A lot of tension will be built up around the world and everyone is waiting for the enemy to take the first move. But that won’t happen. They might be small incidents but they won’t ignite a full out war. We basically slip back into a cold war.
Scenario 3:
This is the doomsday scenario of course. Russia is seeing the opportunity to go in with a first strike. Having assets in the Middle Eastern, they will attack Turkey as the gateway to Europe and start a massive build up on the Polish borders and the Baltic sea. China will activate it’s neighbors like North Korea which of course will take an aim on South Korea to test the waters how the United States will react. The United States will not act, so China is confident it’s in ability to continue in their region to “acquire” new land masses. Eventually these countries will try to fight back but in the end surrender. Trust to the Western powers are lost and the two axis of powers will be pretty much isolated from each other. Small war theaters will happen here and there … now the question is if anyone has the guts to use Nuclear weapons?
Any of these scenarios, I highly suspect that we will see any warfare on US soil anytime soon. Even in Europe. Most of these wars will be done in proxy wars and there will be very little direct engagement.
Even it doesn’t directly affect us in terms of “running for your life”, I still believe it will have a tremendous amount of influence how we go by our daily lives.
